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Did you know San Jose’s projected general fund deficit of $116.2 million is based on the “base case” scenario of General Fund expenditures and revenue?
In last week’s blog, I noted that 10 of San Jose’s General Fund revenue sources are currently performing below their peak years (5 of these 10 peaked in FY 2000-01, and 3 peaked in 2005-06). Today, we'll look closer at the projected FY 2010-2011 cost of delivering existing services, new services, operation of new facilities, and the addition of 25 police officers.
The “Base Case” scenario represents what the City’s expenditures and revenues will be if economic conditions continue as they are. Two alternative forecasts have been developed to model the range of financial scenarios possible under varying conditions: “Optimistic” and “Pessimistic”.
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For FY 2010-2011, the projected deficits range from $112.1 million in the Optimistic Case to $126.6 million in the Pessimistic Case, with the Base Case budget deficit at $116.2 million. By embracing the Base Case view, the City Manager’s Budget Office assumes that all projected General Fund expenditures and multiple budget assumptions will not change.
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The City Manager’s proposed General Fund expenditure reduction targets were 7.5% for Public Safety and 35.3% for remaining city departments, all of which would save the City approximately $100 million.
The City Manager expects that significant service reductions and eliminations will be necessary if the economy remains slow, unemployment stays high, and the state legislature once again raids city tax revenue to balance their budget. (California cities are required by law to balance their budgets.)
Mayor Reed is scheduled to issue his Budget Message on March 12. This proposal will then be discussed, amended if necessary, and eventually adopted by the City Council.
City Manager Figone’s Budget Office will use the Council’s specific guidance to prepare FY 2010-2011 Proposed Capital and Operating Budgets currently scheduled to be submitted on April 19th and May 3rd respectively.
In future blogs, we'll look closer at spending forecasts for FY 2010-2011. In the meantime, you should read the 2010-2011 City Manager's Budget Request and 2011-2015 Five Year Forecast to get a better idea of many budget assumptions that may change as well as other details.
Ed Rast is a neighborhood leader who does in-depth research and statistical analysis. Opinions expressed are his alone and should not necessarily reflect upon groups of which he is member.
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Enough, Enough - What is Protect San Jose ? Is it another platform for Ed Rast vs. our City Manager ?
Debbra Figone is a City employee, she reports directly to the Mayor, and is responsible to the Mayor and City Council. To criticize Ms.Figone is to say, "Our City Council and Mayor '' do not have our best interest at stake.
This Council was delivered a very difficult plate to deal with, the previous administration decided to build a new expensive City Hall, in addition a new expanded Airport while in the midst of deficits. Now comes the worst recession since the Great Depression. The State is hitting our City with more debt as they take money from our RDA.
Ed, give it a brake. If you are having a problem with the City Manager, the Mayor and the Council, I would suggest you ask for a private audience with them and try to get them to understand your concerns. But, enough is enough.
What is Protect San Jose ? We have one of the Police and Fire Departments in the Country, staffed with nothing but "quality personal" and 95 % of the residents know and appreciate them. Lets try to build on our strong points in these difficult times.